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07.02.2008

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For more Hartman Group articles on TRENDS, click here...

04.30.2008 A Convenience Truth

01.09.2008 HartBeat Year In Review: Best of 2007

12.19.2007 In a New Era of Quality, 8 Trends for 2008

01.10.2007 6 From 2006: The Best of Hartbeat

12.23.2006 Trends To Watch in 2007

12.14.2005 Trends To Watch in 2006

12.23.2004 Trends To Watch in 2005

12.29.2003 Trends To Watch in 2004

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Trends That Transform

Trends emerge and hang around; fads come and go. That’s one of the cool things about consumer culture, its ability to keep industry experts, analysts and pundits guessing as to what’s on the horizon worth watching or what’s falling from view. Since we’ve done our share of trends prognosticating over the years, we thought the midpoint of 2008 an appropriate time to look back to see how our fearless forecasting has fared.

Fortunately, we’ve been right far more often than we’ve been wrong. We believe this is because when you're as close to consumers as we are, and take a disciplined approach to discerning between real behavior and attitudes, we stand a really good chance to not miss the mark that often. This doesn’t mean we're flawless; we’ve missed the mark a time or two. At the heart of the matter is understanding the dichotomy between predictable and unpredictable consumer behavior and how such understanding renders rich insights into identifying the trends that can have a significant impact on the marketplace.

Here, then, are trends that have left their indelible mark on the marketplace.

Seven That Are Spot On

The following seven trends predictions will resonate far into the future.

Organic Meets Main Street

1997

Before “organic” became a household word, The Hartman Group correctly predicted that organic would emerge from the shadows of a niche market and into the blazing sunshine of the mainstream marketplace. With our Evolving Organic Marketplace report, we demonstrated that the industry game board was changing and predicted that even the largest of retailers would one day soon be selling organics to everyday consumers across all walks of life and lifestyle. While organic sales may have leveled off a bit recently, consumers will not be abandoning organics any time soon.

The Human Side of the Obesity Epidemic

2004

We put a human face on the obesity crisis. When the media and policy makers were searching for a place to affix blame, we provided the consumer understanding with Obesity in America. While consumers demonstrate their awareness of the supposed connection between excess weight and health risks, most do not perceive themselves at risk. Illuminating the human realities of the lifestyle and health issues behind weight management are the 27% of consumers who agree that “there is nothing wrong with being overweight as long as the person is healthy.” Consumers are still in need of solutions and continue to look to food manufacturers and retailers for help.

The Bottom Line on Green

1996

Long before consumers and companies knew they had a carbon footprint, The Hartman Group established itself as the first company dedicated to understanding environmental issues from the consumer perspective. Early on we recognized mainstream America demonstrating a shift in both culture and lifestyle with the environment being only part of a much larger issue of health and wellness. Today, the world of sustainability is diverse and touches on an enormous breadth of products, services and industries. While sustainability may not yet be a common household word, consumers are increasingly embracing green practices and products and will continue to filter purchase decisions through a green lens.

Wellness Consumers Go to the Grocery Store

1999

The average grocery shopper, while increasingly fascinated with wellness, does not associate their traditional supermarket with the emotional attributes connected to health, nutrition or wellness. Instead, it is simply a place to “get in and get out of.” It was true in 1999 and it rings true today — opportunities abound for supermarkets to connect with wellness conscious consumers.

Quality Gets a Makeover

2003

The media and industry analysts may have us believe that “better for you” is all the rage today in food and beverage products, but we’ve said for a number of years now that larger, cultural forces are at work. Namely, what was once a paradigm of healthy eating habits and healthier food products is now a paradigm of high-quality experiences, of which healthier eating is but one of many important sub-themes. Regardless of demographic, consumers will continue, in growing numbers, to pursue premium products and experiences. Consumers no longer feel a need to justify premium, they expect it and feel they deserve it.

Demon Foods on Parade

Late 1990s

Like fat, calories, sodium and carbohydrates, trans fatty acids and high fructose corn syrup joined the hit parade of foods and food ingredients demonized by consumers.

The Fresh Connection

Late 1990s

Move over packaged goods, consumers increasingly believe that things found in a box, jar, carton, can or bag are inferior products, or lesser quality, or second-class citizens compared to fresh foods. Quality, fresh food beyond the home is simply no longer inconvenient for American consumers.

Ones Worth Watching

Some trends occur over a longer time period or are still developing in terms of consumer understandings that link by dotted lines to a term that media and industry use. One example would be “functional foods,” which some consumers define as “foods that function…like lettuce in a sandwich.” Not quite how food scientists and marketers view the term. Here are five trends that, while not startling in their current actualization, will have a lasting impact.

Local Gets Real

2003

“More consumers will flock to farmers' markets or local produce stands. Buying local in 2003 will become as important as products like organic in that the significance of ‘local’ is that it represents similar values to where your customers live, work and play.” This is true today, and increasingly so at retail. Consumers are particularly interested in products and services that help them preserve a way of life they value as embodied by their local communities.

Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSD) Lose Their Fizz

2006

We issued a death warrant on carbonated beverages when sales declined .2% in 2005. Since then, they have fallen off sharply, plunging another 2.3% in 2007. It appears our prediction that declining CSD consumption as a permanent, long-term trend is holding.

The Function of Functional Foods

1999

Despite isolated examples of ongoing shelf movement (e.g., calcium fortified orange juice, enhanced beverages, energy bars), at our heart we are a nation of people who want our food to be food and our medicine to be medicine. American consumers don’t want their food to be medicine. Enough said.

Free Wi-Fi (as a Mantra, Like “Free Tibet”)

2003

Pay-as-you-go revenue models for use of Wi-Fi in public settings are flawed for a host of reasons. Wi-Fi should be complimentary, unrestricted and free from any corporate sponsorships or tie-ins. To treat Wi-Fi as anything other than a public good utility (e.g., water, air, electricity) is to tie one’s self needlessly to a dated, twentieth-century worldview.

The Revealing Truth About Transparency

2006

In 2006 we saw that consumers increasingly voiced an interest in the company and stories behind the brands, products and services they buy. Not just limited to an interest in country of origin, consumers today are inquisitive about the practices and production methods used to generate a product or service — and its consequences on their health, their community and even the planet.

What Lies Ahead?

Consumers are not standing still; they are busy redefining (and in many instances, shattering) all notions of how life is to be lived. Consumers will not compromise their values; for instance, they will not sacrifice quality for convenience. To be able to see what lies ahead means that we have to clearly see what’s in front of us right now. The biggest problem, of course, lies in not seeing what's really there but instead seeing what you are used to seeing or what you want to see. But if you really see what's there, and understand the potential of what's there, then you can begin to understand how what's there, if properly cultivated, will grow into the future.

We’ve been paying close attention to the marketplace for 20 years now and over this time we’ve been driven to find better techniques and tools to help us see more clearly what is going on with consumers in their native environments — where they live, shop and use products in the contexts of their everyday, busy, complex lives. And this is what has led everyone at The Hartman Group, Tinderbox and Retail Intel to a tremendous appreciation of and fascination with the logic of the irrational forces driving the lifestyle marketplace. You can be assured that we will continue to stay close to consumers and confidently forecast what we believe will come true.

Come back next week for our mid-year look at trends: Then, Now, Next.

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