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07.16.2004

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Read more about The Hartman Group's most current report on low-carbs, The Vanishing Potato: Understanding the World of Low-Carb Dieting from a Consumer Perspective.

For more Hartman Group articles on the LOW-CARB PHENOMENON, click here...

HARTBEAT

March 03, 2004 "Where are My Potatoes?: 3 Myths About Low-carb Dieting" - by James Richardson, Ph.D.

October 24, 2003 "The Future of Low-Carb Diets: Trend or Fad?" - by The Hartman Group

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Low Cultural Legitimacy For Low-carb

Here we are, well into the third quarter of 2004, and everyone is still talking about carbs. A coalition of scientists and PR flacks from the CPG sectors hardest hit by the low-carb craze (baked goods, juices, etc.) tell us this is all a big mistake, an irrational consumer fad that surely can't continue. On the other hand, early entrants into the low-carb sector invoke science as an unwitting ally. "The reason low-carb is here to stay," they tell us, "is the public has investigated the facts, the science if you will, and realized that low-carb is a fast, safe and effective method of losing weight."

Those with the most at stake in this mess - major brand manufacturers with freshly minted low-carb lines - retreat to the same vague generalities and jargon that plague marketing-speak, "Consumers remain proactive in their search for low-carb options to meet their changing lifestyle needs, and we believe our family of fine products provide the optimal solution set for their lifestyle choices." And still others - especially analysts - chime in with prognostications drawn seemingly from thin air. "The whole low-carb phenomenon will peak in 2005 before morphing into a more general lifestyle trend," Carnac the analyst tells us.

By contrast, we at The Hartman Group have remained fairly silent on these matters. It's not so much the case that we are afraid to commit to predictions as we are determined to wait for a consensus to develop around what is, at its essence, an imminently cultural - and, by extension, consumer - phenomenon. That said, we are here today to initiate a bolder position on the carb debate. For if our recent conversations with consumers are at all indicative of the rest of the US, the future outlook for the low-carb sector may prove much less rosy than even we previously expected.

Boston, Atlanta & Chicago: The consumer speaks

We recently interviewed 33 consumers in three cities regarding their CPG habits. While the interviews were not strictly about carbs, the subject inevitably arose; and when it did, we were, to say the least, surprised. What struck us most about these interviews was not the lack of involvement with low-carb products (many, in fact, had recently purchased at least one low-carb product) or the lack of familiarity or interest. Rather, we were most astonished by the markedly decreasing belief in the legitimacy of the low-carb phenomenon.

In nearly every interview, the first mention of the words "low-carb" elicited eye-rolling, shrugs or sighs. Whereas only six month prior we found most consumers at least curious about low-carbs, this cross section of consumers appeared jaded, if not downright cynical. Many echoed the complaints of Jocelyn from Atlanta:

"Cutting out carbs is, I suppose, a proven way to lose weight, and for some it's a quick way, but it's no way to live an ordinary life. I watched my carbs for a little while before I realized how silly it all was. Nobody can really live like that, and if they are, they are only fooling themselves."

Others, like Jackie from Boston, echoed similar frustrations:

"I'm done with low-carb...Try watching your carbs, let alone eliminating your carbs, and you realize you're involved in this no-win game where you can't really enjoy eating. It's just wrong."

No doubt some will be tempted to dismiss these complaints as the idle musings of a few consumers ("Maybe low-carb isn't for everybody?"). But again, the real story here is this larger decline in legitimacy, here expressed by the sum total of these opinions. The failure of Zima, California Cooler and other flavored malt beverages was not about the individual preferences of consumers, it was the failure to achieve legitimacy in the cultural realm. Don't believe me? Bring a 12-pack of Zima to your next party - just be prepared for the teasing and insults that are likely to follow.

Why cultural legitimacy?

As we have identified previously in our two studies, The Vanishing Potato: Understanding the World of Low-carb Dieting from a Consumer Perspective and Pulse Report: The Low-Carb Diet and Today's Consumer, there are a very small number of American consumers who remain wholly committed to a low-carb lifestyle (optimistic analysts suggest 10%, most others place the number at around 3-5%). These consumers may remain active in the low-carb arena for some years to come and will likely patronize low-carb brands. Moreover, for many of these consumers the pursuit of a low-carb lifestyle is intimately connected to health and wellness goals - namely weight reduction. While these consumers remain committed, as we speak, to the low-carb lifestyle, their numbers are few.

By contrast, for the vast majority of American consumers ( approximately 65%), the current interest in low-carb arenas is less about specified health or wellness concerns (e.g., weight reduction) than it is the larger American preoccupation with the betterment of the self. Like spending more time with one's children, allocating more income to one's 401K fund, getting more exercise or becoming more organized, monitoring one's carbs is a pathway to a better self. In this, "watching one's carbs" is yet another incarnation of the classic American watching behaviors of the late twentieth century. Like calories, sodium, cholesterol and fat to come before them, carbs are one more entrant in the ongoing parade of demons to be kept at bay by those seeking self-betterment.

But while watching one's fat intake or one's cholesterol levels remain moderately legitimate goals - and, hence, relevant to contemporary CPG worlds where reduced-fat or low-cholesterol products still succeed (namely dairy) - our recent interviews suggest cutting carbs could be on the way out for many consumers, the victim of what appears to be a rapidly eroding basis of cultural legitimacy. Moreover, this skepticism - in some cases cynicism - appears to have spread widely into the consumer domain, with potentially humbling long-term implications.

I suppose all of this is a way of asking, "How can we (consumers) build our lives around that which we can't even take seriously?"

What does it all mean

I want to reiterate here that we are not suggesting there will be no market for low-carb products in the years to come. Quite to the contrary, we believe that low-carb will likely always remain an option for a small sub-set of consumers with a focused interest in weight loss regimens. We'll leave it to the analyst to debate the potential size and longevity of that market - a market that in our opinion will never be mainstream.

The real question, though, is precisely how low-carb will figure into the vast majority of American consumers' lives in the years to come. And while we don't have an exact answer to that question, we are willing to offer here - in the voice of the consumer - this early peek into what we believe will prove a much less rosy future than many have predicted.

And finally, in the weeks to come, we will take up the equally interesting question of how, precisely, the cultural legitimacy of carbs appears to be dwindling.

Stay tuned.

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