07.18.2007

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Demon Ingredient: High Fructose Corn Syrup

While the current consumer obsession with sugar is hardly new, there are several factors converging at once which we believe are causing consumers to become obsessed with avoiding high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS).

1) Nutrient overload

The past 20 years has ushered in a flood of re-formulated consumer packaged goods (CPG) products designed to appeal to health and nutrition-conscious consumers based on a baffling array of nutrients, fortifications, ingredients or lack there of. Consumers are literally drowning in a sea of products bearing all manner of health claims whose relevance is often fleeting, at best- "low fat," "low-carb," "trans fat-free" "whole-grain," "low sodium" and on and on.

While some manufacturers may have experienced temporary lift with certain SKUs, or even a short term win with a few products (e.g., Snackwells), the net effect of all of this nutrient-based marketing is causing consumers, en masse, to abandon their previous nutrient-based strategies: "First my doctor told me to try Snackwells because they were fat free...But then I realized how many carbs were in there..And now the trans fats! What next!"

2) Higher quality food experiences & sugar avoidance

Taking the place of nutrient-focused shopping is a more general interest in higher quality food experiences. We've all witnessed slumping center store sales as consumers increasingly prefer to skim around store perimeters in search of offerings in key fresh departments (meats, seafood, produce, vegetables) as well as prepared foods. The overall goal here is to avoid packaged and or processed foods whenever and wherever possible.

So when consumers do venture into the (increasingly) quiet depths of the center store for packaged or processed foods, they are choosing to focus their attention on those foods with the fewest ingredients, additives or preservatives. Likewise, their chief concern when reading package labels has shifted from nutrients and health claims to sugar content, where they demonstrate two complementary goals (a) reducing overall sugar intake and (b) avoiding anything with HFCS.

To be certain, consumers have always - and will continue to - allow sugar into their diets, but they demonstrate a tenacious desire to reduce overall sugar intake. And as rational or irrational as you may choose to believe, the whipping boy of their frustration is HFCS. Choosing to re-formulate your cookie line with whole grain options is absolutely meaningless if your product still contains HFCS. Ditto for fortified juices, crackers, soups or any other packaged food category. We can guarantee you that 7UP's recent decision to market itself as "natural" to consumers fell on deaf ears when the ingredient label read "high fructose corn syrup."

3) Cultural obsession with health & sugar

As a nation we've always been obsessed with sugar. And in this we are not alone. Anthropologists have even traced sugar's critical role in colonialism throughout Western Europe and the Americas.

But as of late we are finding that U.S. consumers are blaming sugar for an ever-expanding array of health problems. Just to name some of the more obvious ailments: obesity, lack of energy, stress, poor sleep, misbehaving children, poor school performance, ADHD, type II diabetes, allergies, and on and on. In fact, it would not be an exaggeration to suggest here that the single most consistent Hartman Group finding in 15 years of researching health and nutrition-conscious consumers has been the overriding desire to limit sugar intake in one's diet. Of course, consumers are frequently unsuccessful in that goal, but when they pick up a package to examine it for health or nutrition purposes, sugar is almost always at the top of their minds.

4) What's in a name

It may not be rational, but consumers believe HFCS is particularly evil in large part because of the name. As Melanie Warner pointed out in The New York Times, HFCS doesn't necessarily contain "more" sugar than regular sugar, but we guarantee you that whatever the scientific basis of fact, consumers have come to associate the word "high" (in "high" fructose corn syrup) with "extra bad." Remember, we're talking about consumer perceptions here, which often veer markedly astray from reality - and in many cases in our favor! Additionally, HFCS has also become synonymous with processed foods, which doesn't help its cause.

5) A Free and clear horizon

Finally, we are constantly getting requests from media outlets, clients and analysts as to the next nutrition trend on the horizon. "What's next after trans fats?" the reporter asks.

And while our trends department is always tracking faint glimmers here and there, it is safe to suggest that, for the time being, the horizon is free and clear. We believe this current prognosis will only further the current consumer obsession with purging HFCS from their diets wherever possible. Lacking any distractions or new health and nutrition trends, consumers will continue to target HFCS with ever-increasing zeal.

Some parting thoughts...

Keep in mind that what we are dealing with here are consumer perceptions and not objective facts or science. We would be the first to agree that some, if not much, of the consumer preoccupation with HFCS borders on irrational obsession, but that's the reality of the marketplace, for better or worse.

Case in point, we are by no means predicting the death of HFCS. Quite to the contrary, we would suspect many nutrition and health-conscious consumers will, after an hour spent carefully scanning the juice boxes, cookie packages and cereal boxes at their local grocer, head straight to Taco Bell and order a Sprite loaded with HFCS. Likewise, we suspect few consumers will ever go so far as to worry about the presence of HFCS in the chocolate syrup in their morning lattes.

That's the thing about obsessions, they aren't rational. Nor are they predictable, consistent or reasonable. But they do express themselves. And if our evidence is any indication, this obsession is currently the leading driver of health and nutrition-conscious shopping habits in the packaged foods arena.

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