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12.08.2010

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Cleaning the Garage

Trends Predicted & Realized

This week, we offer the following recap of some of our most successful “ahead of the curve” insights from years past. For those unaware, we’ve been publishing Hartbeat for more than 8 years. And as we were recently exploring these archives (all of which are available online), we were actually quite surprised at the level of insight that pre-dated current trends and outcomes—sometimes markedly so.

Local

The single artifact that inspired this exercise was an excerpt from a HartBeat entitled, “Trends to Watch in 2003.” Given all of the talk these days about local, we were as surprised as any to find this early reference. To wit:

Keeping it Local. Keeping it Real. 
The Local Connection. More consumers will flock to farmers' markets or local produce stands. Buying local in 2003 will become as important as products like organic in that the significance of "local" is that it represents similar values to where your customers live, work and play. Buying local gives them the direct link to extend and expand into their own community, empowering them and giving them a sense of belonging. It also reverberates the experiential nature of the community with the immediate and impactful realization that they're involved. Finally, it reinforces the idea that the grocery store is "their store”—their own personal space—where they can participate and join in their neighborhood environment, where they, in turn, leave their own thumbprint. This relationship is realized not just in the layout and space of the physical store, but the products and services themselves become an experience of their own local community.

And while the trend toward “all things local” was obviously in full throttle by 2008, we found its inclusion in this artifact—one of our iconic trends tables published in July 2008—particularly revealing.

As you’ll see in the table above, in addition to our logical placement of “local” in the NOW column, note the “grow your own” and “food truck” (i.e., taco truck, falafel cart) predictions in the NEXT column. We found these fascinating, as both of these preceded their apex in popularity by about two years.

Given our compulsive need to challenge every assumption—including our own—we decided to put the (apparent) success of our “food truck” prediction to the test. We entered the phrase into Google Trends and as you will see below, “food truck” emerged into our nation’s collective voice around the start of the fourth quarter of 2008.

Always ahead of the curve, we suspect it took journalists about 10-12 weeks to digest our information before running with it. Wink. Wink.

And yes, that little bump you see in the initial trend line is indeed courtesy of The Hartman Group.

Source: http://www.google.com/trends?q=food+truck

Obesity

Those of you familiar with The Hartman Group know that we are well known for our work on obesity. We have published so much on the topic that we sometimes worry about appearing obsessive (though we think the subject important enough to take that chance).

In this case we found our earlier work interesting because our consistent critiques of conventional public policy approaches to obesity have withstood the test of time. Does anybody remember the “new and improved” food pyramid the USDA trotted out in April 2005? You know, the one with “five different triangle-shaped guides, each geared to people's differing lifestyles and nutritional needs"?

What we first argued in 2005 seems as appropriate now as it did then:

So let's get this straight: We've all learned about the first pyramid, but apparently haven't been interested in following its guidelines, and as a result we've (mostly) gotten fatter. And the best response we can muster as a nation is to offer a substantially more complex, multi-faceted pyramid that is custom-tailored to meet differing lifestyles and nutritional needs?
While some critics (ourselves included) might immediately question the logic of complicating a tool that has already failed to gain widespread cultural legitimacy, our own research suggests there is a more fundamental problem here. Namely, American consumers simply cannot and will not consistently eat according to a scientific formula, no matter how neatly it is packaged. In other words, it is not the content, packaging or marketing of the food pyramid that's the problem, it's the pyramid itself.

Likewise, we found surprising inspiration in a similar critique first published in July 2006:

We find that most proposed solutions, such as those offered in a 3,500 word polemic New York Times op-ed by Eleanor Randolph, fit neatly into the "teach" and "tinker" buckets. For example:

Strangely, we find that none of the 10 suggestions listed above begin to directly address the pink elephant hovering in the corner. The root problem, of course, is that we simply consume far, far, far too many calories for our own good.
Yes, you read that correctly: We eat way too much food.
But rather than tackle the problem head on, most in public policy circles appear satisfied to offer up suggestions of the teach and tinker variety, which only hint indirectly at our pathological tendency to over consume.
True, banning junk food sales in schools might help reduce the consumption of so-called empty calories. But if we replaced sodas and candy with juice, nuts and popcorn, our children are still consuming unnecessary calories, no? Might it make more sense to ask how and when it even became acceptable for children to snack in school? Why would we even have vending machines in schools, no matter what is inside them?

We continue to push the question “why is it necessary or acceptable for children to snack in school?” in our dialogues on the subject. Yet few seem interested in engaging us. Could it be that snacking has become such an ingrained habit of American life that to suggest an alternate way of living seems at best incomprehensible, at worst heresy?

And as to very recent questions regarding whether or not offering carrots made to look like junk food in school vending machines is an appropriate action, we again ask, “Why would we ever want our precious children to eat out of machines?”

Perhaps we will be revisiting this question in a similar publication in 2020?

Globalization of Food Preferences

Once again, we cannot lay claim to being the first or only analysts to ever discuss global flavors and global cuisines. The globalization of food, flavors and preparation has been going on for thousands of years. And in the past 30 - 40 years this globalization of flavor has expanded rapidly in most countries and cultures, albeit a bit more slowly among we xenophobic Americans.

But by 2010, ethnic cuisines are now commonplace in American society. Such options are increasingly becoming part of everyday food choices for most Americans, and this trend will only grow in the generations to come.

But we first brought this to the attention of our readers in 2005, more than half a decade ago:

Consumers in their 30s or 40s are, by now, well-acquainted with most global cuisines, yet tend to view them largely as dining out options when in a specific mood for ethnic food (as in, "Do you want to grab Indian food or Sushi tonight?"). Kids in their teens and early 20s, by comparison, have spent their entire lives under such global influence. To these consumers, global styles and cuisines are almost second nature. Today's teenage consumers, for example, are as comfortable indulging in Japanese candy after school and cooking Pad Thai for dinner as they are meeting their friends for Dim-Sum on a Saturday afternoon.

It’s worth noting that one of the places where we currently see the most powerful expression of authentic, global cuisines happens to be within the domain of street food or so-called “food trucks,” wherein the (literal) niche market focus of the truck allows each vendor to focus on one or two specialties within a given ethnic cuisine.

Science Behind Rationality

When cleaning one’s garage, there are always those odd curiosities lurking about. The kinds of things one stumbles across and thinks to themselves, “How could I have ever imagined when I was a little kid that someday I would grow up to be an adult with something like this in my garage…”

First published in 2002, the commentary below proved to be eerily omniscient of things lurking around the corner in the analyst community. Writing on the subject of the irrationality of supposedly “rational” consumers:

So rather than continuing to "spin our wheels" in a vain attempt at portraying ourselves as something we are not ("all wise" and "all knowing"), why not suck up our collective pride and meet the enemy face to face? That is, since most of us readily admit that humans are imperfect, why not look to see if there are identifiable forces causing us to make mistakes in similar patterns and similar directions? From a marketing perspective, wouldn't it be darned interesting to know, for example, any potential scientific basis underlying our errors in perception and judgment?
To cite but one now infamous example, most of us are guilty of believing in the "law of small numbers." Even though we all generally agree that the odds of a flipped coin ending up "heads" is about .5, most of us encountering three straight "tails" on three successive flips would place the odds of the next flip coming up "heads" at much higher than .5, probably on the order of .7 or .8. Also known as the gambler's fallacy, this lapse in good judgment emanates from our tendency to exaggerate the degree to which a small sample (4 coin flips) estimates the population from which it is drawn (infinite coin flips). And as trivial as this error may seem to you or I, casino operators in Las Vegas depend on it quite heavily to fill their coffers.

This orientation, what is now more widely known as behavioral economics, was virtually unheard of in most circles in 2002. In fact, most of us first became aware of these ideas via either Dan Ariely (Predictably Irrational, published in 2008) or Levitt & Dubner (Freakonomics, published in 2005).

Just a reminder that the strangest of things lurk in the darkest of corners.

Around the corner?

So, what’s around the corner in this approaching trends season? We’ll offer up two intriguing trends we’ll be watching (and have been watching) closely.

Rockstar Butchers Inspire DIY Devotees

Last year we welcomed the return of the butcher and predicted the dawn of the Rockstar Butcher. Butchery skills began to recede in the 1960s, when beef and pork, already cut and boxed, started arriving at supermarkets. The neighborhood butcher, the one who could be relied upon to save the best cuts for preferred customers, began to evaporate.

There has been a resurgence of interest in the neighborhood butcher—the kind that offers customization from whole carcass beef and pork. With the renewed emphasis on neighborhood butchers came a whole new generation of “rock star” butchers.

So how has this trend evolved? Butchers today are skill-sharing their craft via classes not designed for the faint of heart but for the wannabe homesteader searching for more than homegrown vegetables.

But speaking of veggies, we're seeing them get some respect from traditional chefs where meat-based protein has historically taken center stage. For example, New York City’s high-end Italian marketEataly has a Vegetable Butcher on hand to prep and chop your veggies with skill and precision.

Progressive Popsicle Flavors Inspire Fizzy Beverages

Further proof that no category is an exception to creative forces of reimagination, last year we reported on a few Brooklynites reimagining popsicles with local, seasonal ingredients. Unusual fruits, and an occasional vegetable, combine to craft innovative flavors: sugar plum, mint cucumber, hyssop chamomile, honey raspberry, basil roasted pepper, chile.

Derived much from the imagination and unique flavor offerings from the likes of People Pops, artisan soda makers began hand-crafting effervescent beverages to the delight of thirsty consumers from adult (cocktail inspired) and child (play and whimsy)

Where is this trend going? This year we see a talented number of artisans and cocktail makers exercising their soda craft ranging from draft to bottle. A simple fact is that as Americans we may have decreased our soda consumption, but we still crave its palette-scrubbing bubbles and quenching capacities.

As much as we love the whimsy of popsicles, they will continue to remain a seasonal treat requiring immediate consumption. But, high quality soda can be customized for any occasion or time of year.

Of course, there are many more trends on the horizon for 2011. You can be sure we'll be there to predict, provide insight and add to the conversation.

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