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07.09.2008
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StumbleUponCultural Trends: Then, Now, Next
Trends revolve entirely around consumers — and their patterns of behavior. As cultural anthropologists, sociologists and marketers, we find people fascinating. Much of what you need to know about the future you can learn by observing and studying consumers in their native environment. Of course, this is the essence of our work here at The Hartman Group, Tinderbox and Retail Intel.
In a marketplace as dynamic and fluid as the one we all confront on a daily basis, it is only natural to be interested in the future. Interest in the future, in knowing what lies ahead, drives our thirst for trends. Trends are an indication that consumer culture is changing and evolving. By understanding the motivations underlying these trends we can convert that knowledge into business opportunities.
This is why you won’t see us make too many seemingly off-the-wall predictions or come up with cute generational or demographic monikers. Our view on trends comes from being close to consumers — through an exhaustive, disciplined study where we have literally spent thousands of hours documenting the patterns of consumer behaviors within the context of real, everyday life.
Here, then, is our glimpse into consumers: then, now and next.
| Cultural Trait | Then | Now | Next |
|---|---|---|---|
| OUR WORLD | |||
| “Greatest global threat to my way of life…” | Communism | Terrorism | Climate Change |
| “My generation’s defining moment…” | Y2K | 9-11 | First Black President |
| ECONOMY | |||
| “Price of gasoline before my behavior changes…” | $2.00 gallon | $4.00 gallon | $4.00 quart |
| MEDIA & NEWS | |||
| “I like my news…” | TV / Print / Radio | Internet | Blogging; Microblogging; Wireless Text |
| “How I get my news…” | Print & CNN | Online newsletters | Customized newsfeeds; RSS |
| “The media I receive is funded by…” | Free | Corporate | Grassroots |
| HEALTH & WELLNESS | |||
| “How I approach my physical health…” | Repair | Prevent | Live Free1 |
| “How I want to approach my body’s health…” | Condition Management “I want to be healthier.” | Overall Health Management “I want to stay healthy.” | Holistic Well-being “I want to live a better life.” |
| FOOD CONSUMPTION | |||
| “I want my food fast...” | Fast Food (McDonald’s, Taco Bell) | Fast Casual (Panera, Chipotle) | Authentic Convenient (taco trucks, falafel carts, lunch trailers) |
| “Let’s do dinner…” | Special occasion, fine dining or vacation | Every day a special occasion | All eating occasions are created equal |
| “How I make a meal…” | Frozen dinners | Local | Grow your own |
| CAREER | |||
| “My office is…” | In a corporate building | In my home | Neutral setting2 |
| “My work week…” | Five 8-hour workdays | Four 10-hour workdays | Productivity/outcome based — time not tracked |
| “My commute is…” | Short and close to home | Bumper to bumper for miles and miles | Shortened due to migration back to metro areas and/or high speed public transit |
| LIFESTYLE | |||
| “My diet looks like…” | Lite, Low Carb | Healthy Diet | Real Food |
| “Where I met your Mom (or Dad)…” | At a bar | Old is new again: bar, grocery store, laundromat | |
| “I want to have children…” | Always & Young | Fewer & Older | International Adoption |
| “How I stay closer to God…” | Neighborhood | Mega Churches | Virtual Churches |
| “When I have time off…” | Europe in July | Staycation | Home share with people in other countries |
| “What I do for exercise…” | Aerobics | Pilates | Wii |
| “My dog is my…” | Animals as pets | Pets as children | Pets as partner |
| TECHNOLOGY | |||
| “My world is growing virtually…” | Desktop | Laptop / PDA | Hologram & multi sensory experience |
| “Music at my fingertips…” | Discman | iPod, iPhone | If we knew, then Steve Jobs would hire us |
| “My transition from Model T to Big H…” | Gas | Hybrid | Electric / hydrogen |
| ENTERTAINMENT | |||
| “How I spend my free time…” | Books & TV | MySpace & YouTube | Community activities |
| “I watch movies…” | At the theater | At home | In public spaces |
| “I create my style…” | Brand names | Create your own (Vintage/Thrift shopping) | “Green clothing,” style becomes irrelevant (self-expression) |
| CONVENIENCE | |||
| “For me, convenience means…” | Saving time | Spending less mental energy | Making complex tasks easy |
| RETAILING | |||
| “How I want to shop…” | One-stop shopping | Shopping online for everything | Swap meets (virtual and physical) |
| “Where I want to shop…” | Mom and Pop | Mass retailers | Customized small footprint & home delivery |
| SUSTAINABILITY | |||
| “My green behavior is…” | Recycling | Compact fluorescent light bulbs | LEED communities |
| “Sustainability is about…” | Environment | Environment, social, economic | Reinvented products with closed loop Life Cycle |
1Consumers are taking a new approach to wellness by defining what it means to live well. They feel they are free from imposed cultural ideals and can play by their own rules.
2Working solo can become a lonely gig consequently consumers are becoming office nomads. To connect with others, consumers are stepping out of their homes to work in shared and public spaces.
What trends will still resonate in the marketplace of tomorrow?
Look back on our trends predictions over the years to see which ones still ring true today in last week's trend prediction flashback Trends that Transform.
