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12.29.2003

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For more Hartman Group articles on TREND ANALYSIS, click here...

December 27, 2002 "Re-Thinking Our Traditional Notion of the Mass Marketplace: The Emergence of a New Paradigm"

December 20, 2002 "Re-Thinking Our Traditional Notion of the Mass Marketplace: What Happened to the Mass Market?"

April 12, 2002 "Seeing the Future; Seeing What's There" - Part II

April 5, 2002 "Seeing the Future; Seeing What's There" - Part I

June 6, 2000 Entering the Soul Age.

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Trends To Watch In 2004: an Excerpt From Our Upcoming Trends Report

2004 has already been a tough year for those in the trends business.

As if isolating trends and patterns or making predictions weren't challenging enough, we now have to grapple with allegations that this whole trends business has itself become irrelevant. As seen in the likes of Wired, Rolling Stone and the New York Times, these high-profile missives challenge the value and legitimacy of charting trends in an increasingly "hip-obsessed" society. In fact, it wouldn't be too much of an exaggeration to suggest that the recent round of trends-bashing is itself something of a trend that reflects the larger, societal impulse toward self-consciousness and reflexivity.

We happen to believe such criticisms are unwarranted, the unfortunate by-product of our media's tendency to assume that "trends coverage" itself alters the course of evolving trends. Chalk it up to navel-gazing, short-sightedness or arrogance, either way the contemporary media always over exaggerates its ability to transform human behavior.

We still believe in the value of charting trends so long as the observations are firmly grounded in everyday interactions with ordinary consumers - the sort of observations that arise from face-to-face, person-to-person exchanges.

With that in mind, we offer you here a brief sampling of nine important trends among US consumers circa 2003:

Water: By its sheer audacity, the case of water is surely one of the most fascinating marketing triumphs of the latter 20th century. Who could have predicted that in a period of 10 to 15 years, water would make the leap from the most basic of commodities - a commodity that many believe to be either "god-given right" or a "public good," - to a branded, premium product offering significant margins and ROI? In fact, according to a recent Hartman Interactive online survey, bottled water has become as much a part of one's daily routine as coffee or soda - the perfect accompaniment to every mood or setting.

And while we have identified a multiplicity of causes behind the rising consumer interest in bottled waters (including health interests, exercise/hydration interests and elements of fashion), the most powerful and intriguing factor emanates from structural inconsistencies and stresses of living in the modern world. Specifically, we find that the main reason we're all drinking so much water is that it seems to alleviate stresses and tensions caused by a lack of ritual in the workplace and in home life. For the contemporary employee resigned to spend hours in front of a spreadsheet, the act of sipping, draining, filling, sipping - in addition to the requisite bathroom break - provides a way of keeping the body moving, of marking time and, generally speaking, maintaining one's "grip," in an otherwise frictionless world. In this, the rise of habituated water consumption parallels another form of habituated consumption which has been severely curtailed over the past decade. Namely, smoking.

Moreover, because we find bottled water consumption to be intimately linked to the long-term, structural inconsistencies highlighted above, the outlook for this category remains positive. Far from being a passing fad, we believe consumer interest in bottled water will endure for quite some time.

Slow Food: It's been simmering under the mainstream for several years now, but if 2003 was any indication, Slow Food has arrived - without traveling! Dedicated to preserving indigenous and artisanal food traditions in the face what adherents fear is an increasingly homogenous, globalized world, this once-obscure Italian organization is having pronounced effects in the US, where they've even managed to infiltrate a few school districts and exert some influence on menu-planning activities. Any day now your 8-year-old son is going to be demanding truffle oil and Spanish Manchego cheese on his yellow fin mashed potatoes because "you know, that's how they make 'em at school."

Ironically, such devout, obsessive attention to authenticity and culinary tradition may prove to be the movements ultimate downfall. There is already evidence of an emerging backlash fueled in large part by the belief that "Slow Foodies," take themselves far too seriously. Barring a quick injection of equal parts humility, self-deprecation, and irony, we predict a slow death for this one.

Free Wi Fi: If we've learned anything from the early experiments in Wi-Fi delivery by the likes of T Mobile, Starbucks and boutique hotels it's this: Wi-Fi in a public setting must first and foremost be, well, free. Direct revenue models (i.e. pay as you go) are flawed for a number of reasons, not least of which the customer support and billing infrastructures prove far, far costlier and more difficult to navigate than the service itself. Several consumers have recounted horror stories of standing around a Starbucks for 10-20 minutes while on the phone with T Mobile tech support, when all they really wanted was a cup of coffee. Ouch.

Chocolate cafes: Could somebody please explain why it's taken this long - in a world jam-packed with highly differentiated, specialty retailers serving the most esoteric of tastes - for chocolate to finally come into it's own as a fully realized retail experience? After all, it's only been in the last several years that sophisticated chocolatiers got on the ball and realized that department store cash registers might not be the ideal location to hawk their high-end wares. The resulting chocolate cafes (sort of like a Starbucks goes chocolate) are proving to be a runaway success in cities such as Chicago, Portland and New York. The success of that foreign movie probably helped too!

Yoga / Pilates: In the past few years we have observed a marked upswing in the number of consumers participating in Yoga (and to a lesser extent Pilates) such that it's a safe bet to state that Yoga is currently the fitness discipline of choice among mainstream wellness consumers. Many suggest that the allure of Yoga and Pilates stems from their ability to deliver many of the benefits of more traditional cardiovascular exercise regimens (relaxation, stress reduction, mood enhancements, energy) without the requisite impact on the body. The common refrain here is typically something like, "Until I started doing Yoga, I never realized that most of what I was getting out of running was stress-reduction and relaxation...I can now get the same effects from Yoga without destroying my knees."

In fact, Yoga's rising popularity among mainstream wellness consumer resembles the adoption pathway of soy beverages, suggesting that soy and Yoga (and to a lesser extent Pilates) are some of the few core wellness pursuits to really expand into "mainstream," consumer society. That said, we necessarily view Yoga as merely the current choice in the ever-evolving pantheon of fitness and exercise practices. an evolutionary trajectory which appears driven

"Gotta watch those carbs": Everyone has an opinion on the carbs debate, here's ours.

We believe the consumer interest in carb avoidance is not driven by focused dieting regimens (Atkins, Sugar Busters etc.) but, rather, by a more general, long-standing desire for self-improvement in which carbs have simply become the "demon" of the moment. While a small percentage of consumers are actively involved in Atkins dieting, most approach the issue as a lifestyle choice, with the ultimate goal being to minimize or regulate rather than eliminate carb intake. Following in the footsteps of self-improvement lifestyle role models such as Oprah and Dr. Phil, a proper consumer doesn't eliminate carbs in the name of Atkins, she watches her carbs, exercising restraint and discipline just as Dr. Phil, Oprah, Bill O'Reilly and other fine role models (presumably) do.

In other words, it's not so much the diets that are new as it is the ingredients to watch which are new. Like fat, calories and sodium to come before, carbs are simply the next entrant in a never ending "parade of demons."

Our pick for the next demon on parade? Try trans fatty acids.

Butter: Consumer interest in artisanal - what some might describe as "boutique" - butters is on the rise. Specifically, we note the dramatic increase in availability and usage of high-quality domestic butters produced from America's bourgeoning artisanal dairy industry. Compared to standardized, homogenized, "mass-produced" butters fashioned from "mere 80% butterfat," the artisanal products are crafted from "select, grass-fed milks" and churned to achieve an impressive 86% (or higher!) butterfat percentage. Leading the competition in this category is the cultured butter of Vermont's Butter & Cheese Company.

Forward-thinking "trendwatcher" types will no doubt want to stay abreast of these important developments by "sampling" new product offerings on a regular basis!

The "boutiquing" of children's clothing: You knew it was only a matter of time. Early on it was recreation equipment and furniture. Then it was specialty foods and clothing. Now it's children's clothing, where lifestyle-driven consumers are turning their attention (and resources!) in record numbers. And be forewarned, a quick glance at eBay suggests these fashions are demanding the same price premiums as their "adult" equivalents, with many in-demand pieces fetching upwards of $300-$500! Brands on the way "in," include Petit Patapon, Flora Henri, Munki Munki, Cakewalk and Lilli Gaufrette. Brands and products to avoid - lest your daughter ruin your streed cred! - include Gymboree, Baby Gap, Baby Lulu, The Children's Place, and those god forsaken Bear Feet shoes.

Social Networks: By now we've all heard the stories about the "success," of Friendster and the resulting return of VC interest to the online arena. While peer-to-peer networks may remain hot for some time, we agree with the growing backlash that Friendster's days are numbered. Not so much because it's cool to always distance one's self from what is "cool," but because, as our research suggests, after the initial novelty and intrigue, the proposition quickly tires. In the words of one consumer, "After the first few weeks of playing around with it [Friendster] I got bored...Yes, everybody is somehow related, so now what do we do?"

The idea of peer-to-peer networking, however, will remain hot for some time to come as analysts are increasingly seeing the utility of construing the internet not as a container of information, but as a broker of relations. Whereas in the early days of the Internet's ascension, the dominant view held that "everything you want to know is somewhere on the Internet - the trick is finding it," the current mantra is "everything you want to know is somewhere on the Internet - and the way to find it is simply to ask"

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